《梦》

By , July 14, 2012 9:11 pm

《梦》

我梦见,我在天上。我身边有许多星星、小鸟、云彩。我把其中的几颗星星拉下来了。天好像就是一块布,我跑过去睡在月亮上。

(蒋婉清,七岁半)

静物写生

By , July 3, 2012 10:44 am

蒋婉清,七岁半。

这个娃,真的是越来越与众不同了。

随手拍

By , July 3, 2012 10:35 am

番荔枝,又名佛头果、释迦果。小乔木,半落叶,多分支。果肉乳白色,超级甜。2010年初种下的小苗,目前树龄两年半。第一次结果,两个大的,一个小的。

杨桃。常绿乔木,一年四季交互开花结果。杨桃有酸的树种,也有甜的树种。我这棵杨桃是甜的。2009年初种下的小苗,目前树龄三年半。杨桃第一年就可以开花结果,第一年的时候结果比较少,现在是越来越多了。

CY12-Q2 Community Analysis — OpenStack vs OpenNebula vs Eucalyptus vs CloudStack

By , July 2, 2012 9:09 am

This article is an update version of my previous article CY12-Q1 Community Analysis — OpenStack vs OpenNebula vs Eucalyptus vs CloudStack. Readers who are intested in further discussions please contact me via email at the above-mentioned address.

A Chinese version of this article is published at the same time, which can be found at CY12-Q2 OpenStack, OpenNebula, Eucalyptus, CloudStack社区活跃度比较.

The objective of this article is to compare the OpenStack, OpenNebula, Eucalytpus and CloudStack user and developer communities, base on the communications between community members in the form of mailing lists or pubic forum discussions. The data being discussed include the total number of topics (threads), messages (posts), and participants (unique email addresses or registered members). To obtain the above-mentioned data, a Java program was written to retrieve all the forum posts and mailing list messages into a MySQL database for further processing. The analysis results were presented in the form of graphs generated by LibreOffice.

It should be noted that the Eucalyptus project replaced their original forums with a new forum which is called Engage. In addition to the Engage forum, Eucalyptus also started supporting mailing lists, which are indepedent of the Engage forum. It seems that the Engage forum is basically used for technical support, while the mailing lists focus on community discussions.

After being donated to the Apache Foundation, the CloudStack project also migrated to new forums and mailing lists.

The above-mentioned migrations might bring impacts on community activities.

Figure 1 and 2 represent the monthly number of topics (threads) and posts (messages). During the past 3 months, discussions related to OpenStack and CloudStack increased rapidly. At the same time, OpenNebula-related discussions seem to decrease, while Eucalyptus-related discussions are growing slowly. Among the four projects being discussed, the Eucalyptus-related numbers are relatively low.

It should be noted that the CloudStack-related numbers seem to be abnormal in April. This can be attributed to their migration to the new forums and mailing lists. The May and June numbers are growing very fast, which can be considered as positive feedbacks of the donation event (in early April, the CloudStack project was donated to the Apache Foundation after being acquied by Citrix).

Eucalyptus also started their new forum and mailing lists in April. This migration did not produce much impact on community activities. This is because there exist no major changes in either engineering or marketing during the same period.  Eucalyptus announced their return to the open source community in June 20, but it will take a month or so to observe any community resp0nse.

Eucalyptus and CloudStack offer both forums and mailing lists. For Eucalyptus, 1/3 of their community traffic were from the Engage forum, while the rest 2/3 were from the mailing lists. For CloudStack, only 1/5 of their community traffic were from the forums, while the rest 4/5 were from the mailing lists. Assuming the both projects were spending fairly between forums and mailing lists, it seems that mailing lists are more attractive to community members.

Generally speaking, the number of replies to a specific topic represents the attention being received, and the depth of discussion for that particular topic. When the number of master posts (the original post that started a particular topic) is more than the number of replies, it is safe to conclude that the participation of the forum or mailing list is very low. Therefore, the ratio between “the number of  posts” and “the number of topics” represents the participation rate of an online community. In this study we call this ratio the Participatin Ratio.

During the past three months, the participation ratios of OpenNebula, Eucalyptus and CloudStack were very close. The participation ratio of OpenStack is twice as high as the other three.

Figure 4 shows the number of monthly participants of the four projects being discussed. During the past 3 months, the CloudStack numbers were growing at the fastest pace, OpenStack and Eucalyptus were growing at a relately slower pace, while OpenNebula was declining slowly.  For both Eucalyptus and OpenNebula, the number of active participants is about 1/2 of OpenStack and CloudStack.

Accumulated Community Population refers to the total number of users and developers who have participated in forum or mailing list discussions. (This number does not include those who have registered into discussion forums or mailing lists but have never participated in any open discussions.) These are people who have tested or used a specific product for a while, but not necessary currently an active user. A new product release, or a promotion event, might be able to reactivate some of them.

Figure 5 shows the accumulated community populations of the four projects being discussed. The Eucalyptus project still has the biggest population, while the others three are very close. For the first time the population of OpenStack exceeded OpenNebula. Also, the population of CloudStack will exceed OpenNebula in a very short period.

Figure 5 shows the monthly population growth of the four projects being discussed. During the past 3 months, OpenStack’s population growth is much faster than the others. CloudStack is also growing at a very fast rate, while Eucalyptus and OpenNebula are relatively slow.

It should be noted that the OpenNebula project exhibited zero  population growth in June.

In my previous article CY12-Q1 Community Analysis — OpenStack vs OpenNebula vs Eucalyptus vs CloudStack, I predicted that the pouplation of OpenStack and CloudStack will exceed that of OpenNebula in 6~9 months. Because OpenNebula is growing way too slowly, OpenStack achieve this goal in only 3 months. It is expected that CloudStack will achieve the same goal in another 3 months.

Figure 7 is a combination of Figure 4 and Figure 6. The solid lines represent the monthly participants, while the dash lines represent the monthly new members.

For OpenStack and OpenNebula, around 30% of their monthly participants are new members.  For CloudStack and Eucalyptus, around 50% of their monthly participants are new members. This indicates OpenStack and OpenNebula communities are more “sticky” than CloudStack and Eucalyptus communities.

Figure 8 shows the total community population, active participants of the past quarter, and active participants of the past month, of the four projects being discussed. It can be seen that Eucalyptus has the largest population and the least number of active participants (which is at the same level as OpenNebula). For OpenStack, the active participants of the past quarter is 55% of its total population, and the active participants of the past month is 28% of its total population.  For CloudStack, the active participants of the past quarter is 40% of its total population, and the active participants of the past month is 26% of its total population.

The fast growth of the OpenStack community should be attributed first to their marketing efforts. The project still lacks some important functionalities for commercial deployment (Eucalyptus and CloudStack are relatively more mature for commercial deployment in terms of functionality), the steady advertising, public relationship, marketing, and partnership efforts have earned them the most vibrant user community, which will pave the road for their future commercial success.

Citrix donated CloudStack to the Apache Foundation right after the acquisition. This has been proved to be a highly successful marketing effort.

Eucalyptus hired Greg Dekoenigsburg as its VP of Community from RedHat in October 2011.  It seems that Greg DeKoenigsburg is focusing on building customer circles rather than communities. The Eucalyptus community now has a new look and feel (the Engage forum and the mailing lists), but the volume and activity of the community remain unchanged.  On May 20th, Eucalyptus announced that it will return to its open source roots by combining its enterprise edition and the community edition to provide  a single open source product.  This strategic effort will earn Eucalyptus competitive edges in terms of functionality and commercial readiness. However,  the future of Eucalyptus depends on whether the company will continously invest in building communities.  Marten Mickos, the current Eucalyptus CEO, said during his tenure as the CEO of MySQL (in 2007) that success in open source requires you to serve (1) those who spend time to save money, and (2) those who spend money to save time.  In an open source ecosystem, the mojarity belongs to those who spend time to save monty, and among them those who spend money to save time will emerge. At the time being, Eucalyptus did accomplish some commercial success as compared to its competitors. (And so does OpenNebula.) The problem is, should Eucalyptus continues to invest most of its resources on those who will spend money to save time (obviously potential customers), it will gradually lose those who will spend time to save money. When the volume of its active user community continues to shrink, even current paying customers will investigate the possibility of using alternative solutions.

As for the OpenNebula project, this is probably the right time to hire a full time community manager. When the project released version 3.4 on April 11th (and incremental release 3.4.1 on May 3rd), it doesn’t even make a splash among the bigger cloud computing community. Considering the fact that OpenNebula is capable of maintaining an active community that is comparable to that of Eucalyptus at near zero marketing cost, it is safe to conclude that OpenNebula does meet the the requirements from a large number of cloud computing practioners in terms of both functionality and support.  Should OpenNebula carry out marketing campaigns in a way that is similar to OpenStack, its community will continue to grow in terms of population and activeness.

 

CY12-Q2 OpenStack, OpenNebula,Eucalyptus,CloudStack社区活跃度比较

By , July 2, 2012 9:03 am

本文是对《CY12-Q1 OpenStack, OpenNebula,Eucalyptus,CloudStack社区活跃度比较》一文的补充和更新。对本文内容感兴趣的读者,可以通过电子邮件或者新浪微博(@qyjohn_)与我联系。

本文同时发布了一个英文版本,可以参见CY12-Q1 Community Analysis — OpenStack vs OpenNebula vs Eucalyptus vs CloudStack这个帖子。

本文的目的是通过论坛和邮件列表的原始数据对OpenStack、OpenNebula、Eucalyptus和CloudStack项目的社区活跃度进 行分析和比较。主要的原始数据是自2009年来这四个项目的官方论坛和邮件列表每个月所产生的讨论主题数、帖子数、以及参与讨论的总人数(邮件地址或者用 户账号)。为了获取这些数据,我写了一个Java程 序自动地从这四个项目的网站下载了所有的论坛和邮件列表信息,并且从这些信息中分析提取出我所需要的数据。程序提取的数据被导入MySQL数据库中以便进 行统计分析,统计分析的结果通过LibreOffice生成分析图表。

需要指出的是,Eucalyptus项目从4 月份开始用名为Engage的新论坛取代了原有的论坛,同时又开通了独立的邮件列表。从讨论内容上看,Engage论坛侧重于向用户提供技术支持,邮件列表侧重于社区推广。

CloudStack项目被捐献给Apache后,也于4 月份启用了新的论坛和邮件列表。

如上所述举措,都有可能对社区活跃度产生一定的影响。

图1 和图2分别是如上所述四个项目每个月所产生的讨论主题数和帖子数。可以看出,在过去3 个月中,与OpenStack和CloudStack相关的讨论增长迅猛。同时,与OpenNebula相关的讨论有所降温,而与Eucalyptus相关的讨论开始复苏。但是,在本文所涉及的四个项目中,与Eucalyptus相关的讨论数量是最少的。

需要指出的是,CloudStack项目4 月份的数据有点异常,可以认为是由于迁移论坛和邮件列表造成的波动。与CloudStack项目相关的讨论在5 月份和6 月份之间的迅猛增长,应该是该项目被捐赠给给Apache基金会所带来的正面反馈。Eucalyptus项目也在4 月份迁移到新的论坛和邮件列表,但是这一迁移并没有引起社区活跃度上的波动。这是因为在同一时期该项目在市场和技术方面都没有发生大的变动。(Eucalyptus于6 月20日宣布合并企业版和社区版,彻底开放源代码,但是社区的反应通常会有一个月左右的滞后期。)

Eucalyptus与CloudStack项目都提供独立的论坛和邮件列表。从统计数据来看,Eucalyptus项目的论坛流量占总流量的1/3左右,CloudStack项目的论坛流量占总流量的1/5左右。如果不考虑社区运营的因素,可以认为基于邮件列表的社区形式更容易吸引社区成员的参与。

通常来讲,一个讨论主题得到的回复数越多,表明该主题的讨论越深入。一个论坛或者邮件列表如果只有主帖而没有回复,说明这个社区的参与程度很低。因此,平均意义上的“讨论帖子数/讨论主题数”则反映了一个社区的参与程度,这里我们暂且称之为参与度(Participation Ratio)。图3 展示了这四个项目每个月的“讨论帖子数/讨论主题数”。可以看出,在过去3 个月中,OpenNebula、Eucalyptus和CloudStack三个项目的参与度基本上是接近的,并且都有小幅度的爬升。OpenStack项目的参与度是其他三者的2 倍左右。

图4 所示为这四个项目每个月参与论坛或者邮件列表讨论的总人数。可以看出,在过去3 个月中,CloudStack项目的讨论人数增长迅猛,OpenStack与Eucalyptus项目的讨论人数稳中有升,OpenNebula项目的讨论人数呈缓慢下降趋势。在本文所涉及的四个项目中,Eucalyptus与OpenNebula项目的讨论人数相对较少,仅仅相当于另外两个项目的1/3。

累计社区人口(简称社区人口)指的是曾经通过论坛或者邮件列表参与过讨论的用户和开发者总数。(不包括在论坛或者邮件列表中注册但是从未公开参与讨论的社 区成员。)这些人或多或少地使用过相关产品,但是并不代表他们目前还是活跃用户,一个新版本的发布,或者一次市场推广活动,都有可能将他们中的一部分重新激活。

图5 所示为这四个项目的社区人口增长趋势。Eucalyptus项目的社区人口依然遥遥领先,大概是其他三个项目的2 倍。成长迅猛的OpenStack项目,其社区人口首次超过OpenNebula项目。同样快速成长的CloudStack项目,其社区人口也已经接近OpenNebula项目。

图6 所示为这四个项目每个月新增加的社区人口数量。在过去三个月中,OpenStack项目的社区人口增长遥遥领先与其他三个项目,CloudStack项目排名第二,Eucalyptus与OpenNebula项目则增长缓慢。

值得注意的是,OpenNebula项目的社区人口在6 月份出现了零增长。

在《CY12-Q1 OpenStack, OpenNebula,Eucalyptus,CloudStack社区活跃度比较》一文中,我曾经预测OpenStack和CloudStack项目的社区人口将在6~9 个月之后超越OpenNebula社区。由于OpenNebula项目的社区人口增长过于缓慢,OpenStack项目提前3 个月实现了这一目标,CloudStack项目也有望于未来的3 个月内实现这一目标。

图7 是图4 与图6的重新组合。其中,实线部分表示的是每个月参与论坛或者邮件列表讨论的人数,虚线部分表示的是每个月新加入论坛或者邮件列表的人数。OpenStack与OpenNebula项目的新增人口占当月活跃用户的30%左右,CloudStack与Eucalyptus项目大概是50%。如果不考虑社区人口的规模的话,可以认为OpenStack与OpenNebula项目的粘性大于CloudStack与Eucalyptus项目。

图8 所示分别是本文所述四个项目的社区人口,过去一个季度的活跃用户数量,以及过去一个月的活跃用户数量。可以看出,虽然Eucalyptus项目的社区人口最多,但是其活跃用户很少,与OpenNebula项目在同一水平上。OpenStack项目过去一个季度和过去一个月的活跃用户分别占社区人口的55%和28%,CloudStack项目过去一个季度和过去一个月的活跃用户分别占社区人口的40%和26%。

OpenStack项目的高速成长应该归结于其市场推广手段。尽管在功能上还有所欠缺(Eucalyptus项目和CloudStack项目提供了更加全面的功能),但是其坚定而有力的广告、公关、宣传和结盟活动,已经使其在社区方面占据了相对有利的位置,为其未来的商业成功打下了坚实的基础。

Citrix收购CloudStack之后马上将其捐赠给Apache基金会,可以说是一次非常成功的市场推广活动。

Eucalyptus于2011年10月从RedHat那里挖来的社区副总裁(VP,Community) Greg DeKoenigsburg似乎依然将大部分的精力放在客户圈而非社区上。在过去6 个月中,Eucalyptus社区的表现形式发生了改变(新的论坛和邮件列表),但是其运营状况与用户活跃度并没有发生明显的变化。5 月20日Eucalyptus项目宣布合并原来的企业版和社区版,所有功能全部以开放源代码的方式提供给用户。这一战略举措无疑是正确的,但是是否能够成功地挽回社区,还取决于Eucalyptus是否会在社区建设方面有持续的投入。Marten Mickos在担任MySQL公司CEO期间曾指出:“如果要在开源软件上取得成功,那么你需要服务于:(1)愿意花费时间来省钱的人;和(2)愿意花钱来节约时间的人。”在一个开放源代码的生态系统当中,愿意花费时间来省钱的人占大多数,但是他们却是这个系统的中坚力量。就目前而言,Eucalyptus比OpenStack更早地获得了一些商业合同。问题在于,如果Eucalyptus项目继续将80%的时间放在那些愿意花钱来节约时间的人(客户)身上,就会失去那些那些愿意花费时间来省钱的人(社区)。当Eucalyptus项目的社区规模和活跃度与竞争对手之间的距离越来越大的时候,即使是现有的客户也会重新考虑采用替代方案的可能性。

至于OpenNebula项目,现在是考虑寻找一位全职社区经理的时候了。该项目在今年4 月11日发布了版本3.4(还在5 月3 日发布了小版本3.4.1),惊人没有在社区里激起任何波澜。在几乎没有任何市场宣传的情况下,OpenNebula项目的活跃社区规模始终维持在与Eucalyptus相当的水平上。OpenNebula项目取得这样的成绩,是因为它能够满足云计算实践者在功能和支持等方面的需求。如果OpenNebula在此基础上进行类似于OpenStack的市场宣传,其社区规模和活跃度一定能够有大幅度的提升。

 

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